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Friday, October 16, 2009
OECD Employment Outlook
Putting US Unemployment in an
International Context
Presentation
Stefano Scarpetta
Head of the OECD Employment Division
Friday, October 16,
2009
Bureau of Labor Statistics
Postal Square Building
Conference Room 1
First Street Entrance
Washington DC, 20002
9:00-10:00 AM Presentation, 8:30 AM Registration
While the series is free of charge, we ask that you please
register by Thursday, October 15 for security reasons.
Event Description:
The global economy is in the midst of the worst financial and economic crisis of the past 50 years, with severe consequences for workers and their families. Since the second half of 2008, major declines in output have occurred in many OECD and non-OECD countries, leading to sharp falls in employment and steep hikes in unemployment. As in previous severe economic downturns, already disadvantaged groups in the labour market – youth, low-skilled, immigrants, ethnic minorities and, among them, those on temporary or atypical jobs – are bearing most of the brunt of the job losses.
Significant uncertainties surround the short-term economic and labour market outlook. There are growing signs that the worst may be over and that a recovery is in sight. But the short-term employment outlook is grim. The latest OECD projections suggest that output growth will be modest for a number of months to come. Moreover, job creation is likely to lag significantly behind the pickup in output. As a result, the OECD unemployment rate is projected to continue rising through the first half of 2010, possibly even approaching a new postwar high of 10% (57 million unemployed) if the recovery fails to gain momentum.
The 2009 Edition of the OECD Employment Outlook is largely devoted to the jobs crisis. It reviews in details the developments in the OECD labour markets during the crisis and compares them with those observed in previous severe economic downturns. The Outlook looks, in particular, at how different socio-economic groups are affected by job losses and the ability of the safety nets and active labour market programmes to provide effective support to them. In this context, it provides an in-depth review of the policy responses put in place by OECD countries to tackle the hike in unemployment and discusses measures that could be taken going forward to prevent unemployment to become persistent.
Biographies:
Stefano Scarpetta is the Head of the Employment Analysis and Policy Division of the OECD and the editor of the Employment Outlook, the annual flagship publication of the OECD on employment and labor market policy issues. The division is in charge of the analysis of labor market developments in OECD countries and key emerging economies and of the assessment of policy and institutions that affect these developments. Mr. Scarpetta received his laurea (summa cum laude) from the University of Rome, his Master of Science in Economics from the London School of Economics and Political Science and his PhD from the Département et Laboratoire d'Economie Théorique Appliquée (DELTA) of the Ecole des Hautes Etudes in Science Sociales in Paris. He has published extensively in academic journals and edited several books in the fields of: labour economics and industrial relations; economic growth; and industrial organisation.
Kenneth A. Swinnerton holds a Ph.D. in economics from Georgetown University. He holds undergraduate degrees from the University of Pennsylvania. He serves currently as the Chief of the Division of Economic and Labor Research in the Bureau of International Labor Affairs at the United States Department of Labor. In this capacity, he also serves as the Chair of the Working Party on Employment at the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. Dr. Swinnerton’s research activities have covered issues such as the economics of core labor standards, economic causes and consequences of child labor, the labor market implications of financial crises, the informal sector, economic welfare analyses of minimum wage laws, job stability, and the employment impacts of trade agreements. Among others, Dr. Swinnerton has had papers appear in the American Economic Review, the Journal of Political Economy, and the Journal of Labor Economics.
With questions, call the OECD Washington Center, 202-785-6323
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