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OECD/FAO Agricultural Outlook Global Trends in Commodity Markets Presentation: Pavel Vavra Agricultural Policy Analyst and OECD-FAO Outlook co-ordinator OECD Trade and Agriculture Directorate Discussant: Paul Westcott Agricultural Economist Economic Research Service, USDA

Event Description:

The sharp rise in most commodity prices in the period 2007-08, combined with high levels of poverty and growing populations have highlighted concerns about food security. Commodity prices have come down from their 2007-08 record highs, but prices are expected to strengthen with economic recovery. The issue of food security and the capacity of the agricultural sector to meet the rising demand for food will remain high on the international political agenda.
The annual Agricultural Outlook report is prepared jointly by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations. The report analyses world market trends for the main agricultural products, as well as biofuels. It provides an assessment of agricultural market prospects for production, consumption, trade, stocks and prices of the included commodities. 

• Looking forward, real commodity prices over the 2009-18 period are projected to remain at, or above the 1997-2006 average, the period just before the recent price hikes. An expected economic recovery, renewed food demand growth from developing countries and the emerging biofuel markets are the key drivers underpinning agricultural commodity prices and markets over the medium term.
• Biofuel markets are expected to increasingly depend on government mandated use, but prospects remain uncertain, due to such unpredictable factors as the future trend in crude oil prices, changes in policy interventions and developments in second-generation technology.
• The capacity of the agricultural sector to meet the rising demand for food to a large extent rest on the critical factors such as land availability, productivity gains, water usage and climate change. Agricultural production could be significantly increased, provided there is sufficient investment in research, infrastructure and technological change, particularly in developing countries.

Biographies:

Pavel Vavra joined the OECD in 2001. Currently he is an Agricultural Policy Analyst in the Agro-food Trade and Markets Division of the OECD’s Trade and Agriculture Directorate. He is responsible for trade and market related analyses of agricultural commodities, in particular, milk and milk products.  He is an author of the OECD study “Dairy Policy Reform and Trade Liberalisation” published in 2005. He has been also involved in the research agenda related to food economy, supply agrifood chains and vertical integration.  Since 2006 he is a co-ordinator of the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook baselines and reports.  Prior to joining the OECD, Mr. Vavra worked as a researcher for the Centre for Agricultural, Food and Resource Economics at the University of Manchester and for the Trade Research Centre at Montana State University. Mr. Vavra has a PhD in agricultural economics from the University of Manchester and an MSc degree in applied economics from Montana State University.

Paul Westcott is an agricultural economist with the Economic Research Service of USDA.  His current activities include coordination and preparation of USDA’s long-term (10-year) agricultural baseline projections, analysis of U.S. farm commodity policies, and commodity market analysis.  He has recently been focusing on issues related to the expansion of ethanol in the United States.